Revealing latent trajectories of (intended) train travel during and after COVID-19

Maarten Kroesen*, Huyen T.K. Le, Jonas De Vos, Danique Ton, Menno de Bruyn

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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This study investigates whether the decline in public transit ridership is a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a structural shift in travel patterns and attitudes. We estimate a latent class trajectory model using data from a comprehensive and large-scale survey administered by the Dutch national train operator conducted at eight different points in time after the onset of the pandemic. Six latent trajectories in train use and stated future intentions to use the train are revealed, showing different ‘recovery’ pathways. Whereas low-educated frequent commuters travel almost as much as before, highly educated frequent commuters and mixed-purpose travellers still travel much less, even in the last wave when all restrictions are lifted. The results indicate that travellers belonging to these classes have structurally changed their behaviour. The shift to working from home is more pronounced than the shift to private car use.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103952
JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Publication statusPublished - 2023


  • COVID-19
  • Longitudinal latent class model
  • Panel data
  • Stated future intentions
  • Train ridership
  • Working from home


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