TY - CHAP
T1 - Risk Assessment of Coupled Hazardous Scenarios
AU - Chen, Chao
AU - Reniers, Genserik
AU - Yang, Ming
N1 - Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - In a coupled domino effect, hazardous scenarios such as toxic release, VCE, and fire can simultaneously or sequentially occur. Chapters 2 and 3 only consider domino effects that are caused by fire or VCE. Therefore, this study develops a dynamic method called “Dynamic Graph Monte Carlo” (DGMC) to model the evolution of coupled domino effects and assess the vulnerability of humans and installations exposed to such scenarios. In the DGMC model, a chemical plant is represented by a system with multiple agents. The system consists of three types of agents: hazardous installations, ignition sources, and humans. Monte Carlo simulation is used to address the uncertainties in the evolution and interdependencies among the agents. By applying the developed algorithm, the death probability of humans and the failure probability of installations exposed to multiple possible hazardous scenarios can be obtained. Moreover, we can also obtain the possible evolution paths, evolution time nodes, and ignition times by using the developed model and algorithm.
AB - In a coupled domino effect, hazardous scenarios such as toxic release, VCE, and fire can simultaneously or sequentially occur. Chapters 2 and 3 only consider domino effects that are caused by fire or VCE. Therefore, this study develops a dynamic method called “Dynamic Graph Monte Carlo” (DGMC) to model the evolution of coupled domino effects and assess the vulnerability of humans and installations exposed to such scenarios. In the DGMC model, a chemical plant is represented by a system with multiple agents. The system consists of three types of agents: hazardous installations, ignition sources, and humans. Monte Carlo simulation is used to address the uncertainties in the evolution and interdependencies among the agents. By applying the developed algorithm, the death probability of humans and the failure probability of installations exposed to multiple possible hazardous scenarios can be obtained. Moreover, we can also obtain the possible evolution paths, evolution time nodes, and ignition times by using the developed model and algorithm.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85118440058&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-030-88911-1_4
DO - 10.1007/978-3-030-88911-1_4
M3 - Chapter
AN - SCOPUS:85118440058
T3 - Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
SP - 95
EP - 110
BT - Integrating Safety and Security Management to Protect Chemical Industrial Areas from Domino Effects
PB - Springer
ER -