TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk assessment of high-speed rail projects
T2 - A risk coupling model based on system dynamics
AU - Xue, Yutong
AU - Xiang, Pengcheng
AU - Jia, Fuyuan
AU - Liu, Zhaowen
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.
AB - Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.
KW - Dynamic risk
KW - High-speed rail
KW - Risk assessment
KW - Risk coupling
KW - Risk interaction
KW - System dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85088679609&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/ijerph17155307
DO - 10.3390/ijerph17155307
M3 - Article
C2 - 32717994
AN - SCOPUS:85088679609
SN - 1661-7827
VL - 17
SP - 1
EP - 27
JO - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
JF - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
IS - 15
M1 - 5307
ER -
