Risk assessment of large-scale winter sports sites in the context of a natural disaster

Jiansong Wu*, Yuxuan Xing, Yiping Bai, Xiaofeng Hu, Shuaiqi Yuan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
55 Downloads (Pure)


Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern. However, previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure. With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters, the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events, such as large-scale winter sports sites, cannot be ignored. In this study, a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model (NAEA model) is proposed. Based on the results of the NAEA model, a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established. Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis, it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites. Simultaneously, improving the early warning capability, reliability of electrical equipment, and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents. In addition, an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)263-276
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Safety Science and Resilience
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2022


  • Bayesian network
  • Domino disaster chain
  • Fuzzy logic
  • Large-scale sports sites
  • Natural disaster
  • Risk assessment


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