TY - JOUR
T1 - Road traffic mortality in Iran
T2 - longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020
AU - Delavary, Milad
AU - Kalantari, Amir Hossein
AU - Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam, Abolfazl
AU - Fakoor, Vahid
AU - Lavallière, Martin
AU - Wilhelm Siebert, Felix
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran’s Road Safety Strategic Plan.
AB - Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran’s Road Safety Strategic Plan.
KW - change point detection
KW - interrupted time series analysis
KW - road safety policy
KW - Road traffic fatalities
KW - SARIMA
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85174425609&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/17457300.2023.2272239
DO - 10.1080/17457300.2023.2272239
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85174425609
SN - 1745-7300
VL - 31
JO - International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
JF - International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
IS - 1
ER -