Robustness Assessment Method for Future Climate Uncertainties

Energy-efficient buildings tend to cause thermal discomfort due to overheating during summers. With the advent of climate change and increasing outdoor temperatures, the risk of overheating will be exacerbated. Henceforth, the building design must be future proof or robust for climate change. Passive design strategies applied to the building envelope are crucial in reducing the energy demand and provide thermal comfort. However, it is essential to determine their performance in the presence of climate uncertainties, especially in the early design stage. Therefore, the paper illustrates an assessment method for investigating the robustness of the building envelope in curbing the risk of overheating in future climate change scenarios of 2050 and 2085. The study focused on educational buildings as thermal discomfort due to overheating affects students' productivity. The study analysed the performance of different passive design strategies applicable at building envelope in reducing overheating risk and evaluated the robustness using the statistical method of “best-case and worst-case scenario”. The robustness assessment method found fixed or dynamic shading, reduced window to wall ratios, albedo effect of the building envelope, and mixed-mode ventilation strategy with P.C.M. panels as the most robust design solutions. However, ventilative cooling would have limited application towards the latter part of the century