Scale choices shape species adaptation predictions: Improving conservation modeling under global change

Ecological models must mimic observed patterns to predict species responses to global environmental change. However, the observation of patterns is scale-dependent, which poses a fundamental challenge for conservation policy under increasing anthropogenic pressure. This paper examines how choices on temporal and spatial modeling scales affect our understanding of species adaptation to changing environments, using tiger conservation in Nepal's Bardia National Park as a case study. Case study analysis revealed how tigers adapt to climate-driven habitat modification through mechanisms invisible at coarse modeling scales. Different temporal scales uncovered distinct patterns of human-wildlife coexistence, while spatial scales shaped our understanding of how habitat connectivity affects adaptation. This scale dependency of observation determines which processes we can discover and predict. We provide four novel recommendations for scale-aware ecological modeling under global change: explicit documentation of scale contexts, probability models to compensate for abstraction, sensitivity analyses of scale choices, and connected models across scales.