TY - JOUR
T1 - Scenario-based robust optimization of water flooding in oil reservoirs enjoys probabilistic guarantees
AU - Siraj, M. Mohsin
AU - Saltik, M. Bahadir
AU - Van den Hof, Paul M.J.
AU - Grammatico, Sergio
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Model-based optimization of the water-flooding process in oil reservoirs suffers from high levels of uncertainty arising from strongly varying economic conditions and limited knowledge of the reservoir model parameters. To handle uncertainty, diverse robust optimization approaches that use an ensemble of uncertain parameter realizations (i.e., scenarios), have been adopted. However, in scenario-based approaches, the effect of considering a finite set of scenarios on the constraint violation and/or the performance degradation with respect to the unseen scenarios have not been studied. In this paper, we provide probabilistic guarantees on the worst-case performance degradation of a scenario-based solution. By using statistical learning, we analyze the impact of the number of scenarios on the probabilistic guarantees for the worst-case solution subject to both economic and geological uncertainties. For the economic uncertainty, we derive an explicit a-priori relationship between the probabilistic guarantee and the number of considered scenarios, while for the geological uncertainty, a-posteriori probabilistic upper bounds on the worst-case solution are given.
AB - Model-based optimization of the water-flooding process in oil reservoirs suffers from high levels of uncertainty arising from strongly varying economic conditions and limited knowledge of the reservoir model parameters. To handle uncertainty, diverse robust optimization approaches that use an ensemble of uncertain parameter realizations (i.e., scenarios), have been adopted. However, in scenario-based approaches, the effect of considering a finite set of scenarios on the constraint violation and/or the performance degradation with respect to the unseen scenarios have not been studied. In this paper, we provide probabilistic guarantees on the worst-case performance degradation of a scenario-based solution. By using statistical learning, we analyze the impact of the number of scenarios on the probabilistic guarantees for the worst-case solution subject to both economic and geological uncertainties. For the economic uncertainty, we derive an explicit a-priori relationship between the probabilistic guarantee and the number of considered scenarios, while for the geological uncertainty, a-posteriori probabilistic upper bounds on the worst-case solution are given.
KW - scenario-based optimization
KW - statistical learning
KW - water-flooding
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:894d62a8-ad7f-4809-8d43-38fae07558f1
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85050146189&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.362
DO - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.06.362
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85050146189
SN - 2405-8963
VL - 51
SP - 102
EP - 107
JO - IFAC-PapersOnLine
JF - IFAC-PapersOnLine
IS - 8
T2 - 3rd IFAC Workshop on Automatic Control in Offshore Oil and Gas Production OOGP 2018
Y2 - 30 May 2018 through 1 June 2018
ER -