TY - JOUR
T1 - Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
AU - Zemp, Delphine Clara
AU - Schleussner, Carl Friedrich
AU - Barbosa, Henrique M J
AU - Hirota, Marina
AU - Montade, Vincent
AU - Sampaio, Gilvan
AU - Staal, Arie
AU - Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
AU - Rammig, Anja
PY - 2017/3/13
Y1 - 2017/3/13
N2 - Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
AB - Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85015216453&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7e635d35-2e6a-4d30-a1e0-6daac8a8b7a6
U2 - 10.1038/ncomms14681
DO - 10.1038/ncomms14681
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85015216453
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 8
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
M1 - 14681
ER -