TY - JOUR
T1 - Simulation study on impacts of high aviation carbon taxes on tourism
T2 - Application of portfolio vacation choice model
AU - Van Cranenburgh, Sander
AU - Chorus, Caspar G.
AU - Van Wee, Bert
PY - 2014/1/1
Y1 - 2014/1/1
N2 - Aviation carbon taxes have occasionally been debated as a measure to curb aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This paper presents a simulation study on the effects of high aviation carbon taxes on tourism and its related CO2 emissions. The paper investigates the scenario in which, as a result of high aviation carbon taxes, air fares increase by 50%. To assess such impacts, choice probabilities of vacation alternatives, which were conceptualized as portfolios consisting of a destination, mode of transport, accommodation type, and length of stay, were simulated by using a portfolio vacation choice model. Lower and upper bounds of the impacts were derived. Simulation results suggested that a substantial reduction of the contribution of tourism travel to anthropogenic climate change could be achieved. Tourism trani-related CO2-equivalent emissions were estimated to drop between 9% and 32%. Furthermore, it was found that the choice probability of nearby destinations (<200 km) increased considerably: between 4% and 18%. It was also found that the choice probability of short vacations (<1 week) also increased considerably: between 3% and 11%.
AB - Aviation carbon taxes have occasionally been debated as a measure to curb aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This paper presents a simulation study on the effects of high aviation carbon taxes on tourism and its related CO2 emissions. The paper investigates the scenario in which, as a result of high aviation carbon taxes, air fares increase by 50%. To assess such impacts, choice probabilities of vacation alternatives, which were conceptualized as portfolios consisting of a destination, mode of transport, accommodation type, and length of stay, were simulated by using a portfolio vacation choice model. Lower and upper bounds of the impacts were derived. Simulation results suggested that a substantial reduction of the contribution of tourism travel to anthropogenic climate change could be achieved. Tourism trani-related CO2-equivalent emissions were estimated to drop between 9% and 32%. Furthermore, it was found that the choice probability of nearby destinations (<200 km) increased considerably: between 4% and 18%. It was also found that the choice probability of short vacations (<1 week) also increased considerably: between 3% and 11%.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84938593870&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3141/2449-07
DO - 10.3141/2449-07
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84938593870
SN - 0361-1981
VL - 2449
SP - 64
EP - 71
JO - Transportation Research Record
JF - Transportation Research Record
ER -
