Spatio-temporal Kriging for spatial irradiance estimation with short-term forecasting in a thermosolar power plant

J. García Martín*, J. R.D. Frejo, J. M. Maestre, E. F. Camacho

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

This article proposes a method to improve the efficiency of solar power plants by estimating and forecasting the spatial distribution of direct normal irradiance (DNI) using a sensor network and anemometer data. For this purpose, the proposed approach employs spatio-temporal kriging with an anisotropic spatio-temporal variogram that depends on wind speed to accurately estimate the distribution of DNI in real-time, making it useful for short-term forecast and nowcast of DNI. Finally, the method is validated using synthetic data from varying sky conditions, outperforming another state-of-the-art technique.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere39247
Number of pages13
JournalHeliyon
Volume10
Issue number20
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

Keywords

  • Direct normal irradiance
  • Distributed estimation
  • Forecasting
  • Kriging
  • Sensor networks
  • Thermosolar plant

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