Statistical Analysis of Lumen Depreciation for LED Packages

M. Schuld, Willem Dirk van Driel (Editor), B. Jacobs

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeChapterScientific

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Commercial claims for LED-based products in terms of lumen maintenance are fully based on TM-21 extrapolations using LM-80 data. This chapter indicates that there may be a risk in doing this as TM-21 only relies on the behavior of the average LED degradation, instead of taking into account the degradation of all individual LEDs. Therefore, we propose a more profound statistical approach in order to make the appropriate step from TM-21 extrapolation to lumen maintenance on a product level. This is needed as some commercial claims are based on 10 years of warranty and some service bids provide periods of 20–25 years of operation. This chapter reviews the different approaches currently available to perform lumen maintenance extrapolations.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSolid State Lighting Reliability Part 2
Subtitle of host publicationComponents to Systems
EditorsWillem Dirk van Driel, Xuejun Fan, Guo Qi Zhang
Place of PublicationCham
Number of pages16
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-58175-0
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-58174-3
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Publication series

NameSolid State Lighting Technology and Application Series
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
ISSN (Print)2196-4203
ISSN (Electronic)2196-4211

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • Statistics
  • LM-80 data extrapolation
  • Acceleration model
  • LED degradation


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