TY - JOUR
T1 - “Stay nearby or get checked”
T2 - A Covid-19 control strategy
AU - Brethouwer, Jan-Tino
AU - van de Rijt, Arnout
AU - Lindelauf, Roy
AU - Fokkink, Robbert
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a minimum. Simulated spreading patterns resemble contemporary distributions of Covid- 19 across EU member states, German and Italian regions, and through New York City, providing some model validation. Results suggest that our proposed strategy may significantly reduce peak infection. We also find that post-lockdown flare-ups remain local longer, aiding geographical containment. These results suggest a tailored policy in which individuals who frequently travel to places where they interact with many people are offered greater protection, tracked more closely, and are regularly tested. This policy can be communicated to the general public as a simple and reasonable principle: Stay nearby or get checked.
AB - This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a minimum. Simulated spreading patterns resemble contemporary distributions of Covid- 19 across EU member states, German and Italian regions, and through New York City, providing some model validation. Results suggest that our proposed strategy may significantly reduce peak infection. We also find that post-lockdown flare-ups remain local longer, aiding geographical containment. These results suggest a tailored policy in which individuals who frequently travel to places where they interact with many people are offered greater protection, tracked more closely, and are regularly tested. This policy can be communicated to the general public as a simple and reasonable principle: Stay nearby or get checked.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Epidemiology
KW - Interventions
KW - Lockdown exit
KW - SEIR
KW - Small-world network
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85096482423&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.013
DO - 10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.013
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85096482423
VL - 6
SP - 36
EP - 45
JO - Infectious Disease Modelling
JF - Infectious Disease Modelling
SN - 2468-0427
ER -