TY - JOUR
T1 - Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis
AU - Scholten, Lisa
AU - Scheidegger, Andreas
AU - Reichert, Peter
AU - Mauer, Max
AU - Lienert, Judit
PY - 2014/2/1
Y1 - 2014/2/1
N2 - To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers.
AB - To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers.
KW - Decision support
KW - Failure and rehabilitation modeling
KW - Multi-criteria decision analysis
KW - Scenario planning
KW - Strategic water asset management
KW - Water supply
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84889646171&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.watres.2013.11.017
DO - 10.1016/j.watres.2013.11.017
M3 - Article
C2 - 24321248
AN - SCOPUS:84889646171
SN - 0043-1354
VL - 49
SP - 124
EP - 143
JO - Water Research
JF - Water Research
ER -