Sustainable transport policies: Scenarios for the future

Travel patterns in Europe are increasingly dependent on the car. Levels of mobility and car ownership have risen substantially over recent decades and that increase seems likely to continue. The number of private vehicles increased by over one third in the ten-year period between 1985 and 1995, and it is likely that this number may increase by a further 50 per cent by 2020, which would bring vehicle ownership levels to over 600 cars per 1,000 population (OECD/ECMT, 1995). Road capacity has not increased by a similar amount (around 10 per cent between 1985 and 1995), so congestion has increased, particularly in cities where little new infrastructure has been built. The growth in congestion is now officially estimated to cost about 2 per cent of Europe’s Gross Domestic Product (EUROSTAT, 1997).