System-based Vulnerability Measures for Railway Systems

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Abstract

The issue of disruptions in railway systems attracts a growing attention due to its severity to the society. Mitigation strategies are proposed from different perspectives to reduce the system vulnerability resulting by disruptions. However, due to financial limitations, it is not realistic to realize all strategies in the real world. Thus, it is necessary to establish a model based on which the system vulnerability can be measured and the mitigation strategy can be evaluated. In this paper, such a model is constructed by applying a Monte Carlo simulation based on the historical disruption data of railways in the Netherlands. Based on this model, we first construct a baseline scenario that is capable of reflecting the current disruption practice and calculate the top ten vulnerable tracks with the indicator of yearly disruption duration from this scenario. Next, we propose mitigation strategies towards each of the top ten vulnerable tracks of different magnitudes, and construct the mitigation scenarios according to the strategies. Finally, comparison between the baseline scenario and each of the mitigation scenarios is performed with the purpose of strategy evaluation.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication7th International Conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis: RailLille2017
Subtitle of host publicationLile, France
Number of pages18
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event7th International Conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis RailLille - Lille, France
Duration: 4 Apr 20177 Apr 2017
Conference number: 7
https://raillille2017.sciencesconf.org/

Conference

Conference7th International Conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis RailLille
Abbreviated titleICROMA
CountryFrance
CityLille
Period4/04/177/04/17
Internet address

Keywords

  • vulnerability
  • disruption
  • railway system
  • Monte Carlo simulation

Cite this

Zhu, Y., & Goverde, R. (2017). System-based Vulnerability Measures for Railway Systems. In 7th International Conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis: RailLille2017: Lile, France