The economy-wide impacts of climate change and irrigation development in the Nile Basin: A computable general equilibrium approach

Tewodros Negash Kahsay, Onno Kuik, Roy Brouwer, Pieter Van Der Zaag

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC's A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1750004
Number of pages30
JournalClimate Change Economics
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2017

Keywords

  • climate change
  • Computable general equilibrium
  • irrigation development
  • Nile River Basin

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