The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions

Oscar van Vliet*, Susanne Hanger-Kopp, Alexandros Nikas, Eise Spijker, Henrik Carlsen, Haris Doukas, Jenny Lieu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)
27 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)400-413
JournalEnvironmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Volume35
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • Climate policy
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Low-carbon transitions
  • Modelling
  • Risk assessment
  • Stakeholders

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