The Role of Transfer Hubs in Climate-Resilient Porthinterland Connections: Implications for Port Competition

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant challenges to inland waterway transport, a vital mode of port-hinterland connectivity in Europe. Low water levels disrupt vessel operations by reducing their transport capacity. This study investigates the potential of transfer hubs along the Rhine-Alpine corridor to address this challenge and maintain efficient cargo flows during drought conditions. It offers a replicable methodology for evaluating hub placement and transport resilience, incorporating multi-criteria decision-making and transport modeling. Using a transport competition model, three scenarios, including baseline, drought, and transfer hub application, are simulated to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of implementing these hubs at strategic locations. The integration of hubs, particularly near Duisburg and Andemach, demonstrated the potential to sustain 80% operability during disruptions by enabling modal shifts and alleviating bottlenecks. While competition in the North-Western European hinterland, involving ports such as the Port of Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp, is further intensified by climate-induced disruptions, our results show that transfer hubs can help ports secure their competitive advantages by ensuring reliable cargo flow under adverse conditions. Our findings highlight the strategic importance of transfer hubs in mitigating climate impacts, enhancing port competition, and supporting sustainable hinterland logistics.