The use of nested sampling for prediction of infrastructure degradation under uncertainty

H.R.N. van Erp, André D. Orcesi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Because of the competing demands for scarce resources (funds, manpower, etc) national road owners are required to monitor the condition and performance of infrastructure elements through an effective inspection and assessment regime as part of an overall asset management strategy, the primary aim being to keep the asset in service at minimum cost. A considerable amount of information is then already available through existing databases and other information sources. Various analyzes have been carried out to identify the different forms of deterioration affecting infrastructures, to investigate the parameters controlling their susceptibility to, and rate of, deterioration. This paper proposes such an approach by building a transition matrix directly from the condition scores. The Markov assumption is used stating that the condition of a facility at one inspection only depends on the condition at the previous inspection. With this assumption, the present score is the only one which is taken into account to determine the future of the facility. The objective is then to combine nested sampling with a Markov-based estimation of the condition rating of infrastructure elements to put some confidence bounds on Markov transition matrices, and ultimately on corresponding maintenance costs.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure - 5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering, IALCCE 2016
EditorsJ. Bakker, D.M. Frangopol, K. van Breugel
PublisherCRC Press / Balkema
Pages1162-1172
Number of pages11
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-4987-7701-8
ISBN (Print)9781138028470
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Event5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering: Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure - Delft, Netherlands
Duration: 16 Oct 201620 Oct 2016
Conference number: 5
http://www.ialcce2016.org/

Conference

Conference5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering
Abbreviated title IALCCE 2016
CountryNetherlands
CityDelft
Period16/10/1620/10/16
Internet address

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