Thermal Resilience to Extreme Heat: Preliminary Study on Thermal Fragility Curves

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves raises questions about the thermal vulnerability of buildings and, in particular, on how to assess their resilience to extreme heat. In this context, thermal fragility curves, which describe the probability of achieving or exceeding specific temperature thresholds for a building, serve as an effective measure to define the thermal vulnerability of existing buildings and identify tailored retrofit strategies. This study focuses on deriving thermal fragility curves for a case study: a 6-storey residential building constructed in the 1980s with a reinforced concrete structure and masonry infill walls. Dynamic thermal modeling and simulation were conducted over a one-year period using synthetic weather files generated to account for future heatwaves. The simulation results provide useful relationships in particular between: outdoor temperature and indoor Standard Effective Temperature (SET); and between outdoor daily maximum temperature and indoor SET. These relationships were finally analyzed to create and compare fragility curves using maximum likelihood fitting and the so-called Cloud methodology.