Tide circulation patterns in a coastal lagoon under sea-level rise

Ana Rita Carrasco, Theocharis Plomaritis, Johan Reyns, Óscar Ferreira, Dano Roelvink

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study evaluates the patterns and effects of relative sea-level rise on the tidal circulation of the basin of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon using a process-based model that is solved on an unstructured mesh. To predict the changes in the lagoon tidal circulation in the year 2100, the model is forced by tides and a static sea level. The bathymetry and the basin geometry are updated in response to sea-level rise for three morphological response scenarios: no bed updating, barrier island rollover, and basin infilling. Model results indicate that sea-level rise (SLR) will change the baseline current velocity patterns inside the lagoon over the ~100-year study period, due to a strong reduction in the area of the intertidal basin. The basin infilling scenario is associated with the most important adjustments of the tidal circulation (i.e., increases in the flood velocities and delays in the ebb tide), together with an increase in the cumulative discharges of the tidal inlets. Under sea-level rise and in the basin infilling scenario, the salt marshes and tidal flats experience increases in the tidal range and current asymmetry. Basin infilling changes the sediment flushing capacity of the lagoon, leading to the attenuation of the flood dominance in the main inlet and the strengthening of the flood dominance in the two secondary inlets. The predictions resulting from these scenarios provide very useful information on the long-term evolution of similar coastal lagoons that experience varying degrees of SLR. This study highlights the need for research focusing on the quantification of the physical and socio-economic impacts of SLR on lagoon systems, thus enabling the development of effective adaptation strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1121-1139
Number of pages19
JournalOcean Dynamics
Volume68
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2018

Keywords

  • Basin infilling, inlets
  • Current velocities
  • Sea-level rise
  • Tidal circulation

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