Time-Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention

Yamin Huang*, P. H.A.J.M. van Gelder

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

36 Citations (Scopus)
44 Downloads (Pure)


We propose an innovative time-varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability. We then measure the TCR as the time-dependent percentage of overlap between these two sets. Several scenarios are presented to illustrate how the proposed measurement identifies the time-varying risk levels, and how the approach can be used as an intuitively understandable tool for collision avoidance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)24-42
Number of pages19
JournalRisk Analysis
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2019


  • Maneuverability
  • reachability analysis
  • time-varying collision risk
  • velocity obstacle


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