Toward improved cost guidelines for advanced low-carbon technologies

Edward S. Rubin*, Niels Berghout, George Booras, Tim Fout, Monica Garcia, Shareq Mohd Nazir, Andrea Ramirez, Simon Roussanaly, Mijndert Van der Spek

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


This paper presents a framework for estimating the future Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) cost of advanced low-carbon technologies that are currently at early pre-commercial stages of development. It identifies two types of question that commonly motivate a cost analysis: “What If” questions about the hypothetical future cost of a technology that meets specified R&D goals or requirements; and “What Will” questions regarding the true expected cost of an advanced technology once it is mature and widely deployed. The latter type of question is the focus of this paper. It addresses shortcomings in the “bottom up” engineering-economic method current used to estimate NOAK costs. It describes a more rigorous hybrid costing method that combines a bottom-up analysis of the first-of-a-kind (FOAK) commercial cost of an advanced technology with an empirical model employing experience curves to project its future cost. Guidelines are presented for all phases of the analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event15th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, GHGT 2021 - Virtual, Online, United Arab Emirates
Duration: 15 Mar 202118 Mar 2021


Conference15th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, GHGT 2021
Country/TerritoryUnited Arab Emirates
CityVirtual, Online


  • advanced energy technologies
  • contingency cost factors
  • cost guidelines
  • experience curves
  • first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plants
  • N-of-a-kind (NOAK) plants
  • system contingency cost
  • techno-economic assessments
  • Technology cost estimates


Dive into the research topics of 'Toward improved cost guidelines for advanced low-carbon technologies'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this