Towards comprehensive uncertainty quantification in direct-use geothermal systems

The energy transition requires a reduction of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic activity. In Europe, heat amounts to 50% of the total gross energy consumption. In conduction-dominated geological settings, geothermal resources can supply renewable, baseload heat for direct uses, in almost all parts of Europe. In these settings, economic viability can be challenging and should be considered as coupled to the development of geothermal fields.

The aim of this paper is to outline the way towards comprehensive uncertainty quantification. A methodology is proposed identifying three main categories of uncertainty sources to be evaluated based on three key performance indicators in a systematic approach. The sources of uncertainty include: a) subsurface characterization, b) development options and c) economics. The performance indicators are : i) cumulative energy generated, ii) system lifetime and iii) economic output. Each of the uncertainty sources and performance indicators are used to demonstrate the importance of a comprehensive approach to uncertainty quantification. Standardization and comprehensive analysis considering the combined uncertainty across the different uncertainty levels and over the key performance indicators is needed to enable more reliable and robust predictions of geothermal developments.