Towards improved guidelines for uncertainty analysis of carbon capture and storage techno-economic studies

Uncertainty analysis is a key element of sound techno-economic analysis (TEA) of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies and systems, and in the communication of TEA results. Many CCS technologies are novel concepts, that are still in the early (pre-commercial) stages of development. Therefore, uncertainties in their technology performance and cost are often substantial, making it imperative that they be characterized, and their impacts reported. Although uncertainty analysis itself is not novel, with some methods already frequently used by the CCS TEA community, a document that provides a comprehensive overview of methods and approaches, as well as guidance on their selection and use, is still lacking. Given its importance, we seek to fill this gap by providing a critical review of uncertainty analysis methods along with guidance on the selection and use of these methods for CCS TEAs, highlighting good practice and examples from the CCS literature. There are many opportunities to bring the use of uncertainty analysis to a higher level than currently practiced. This review of and guidance on available methods is intended to help accelerate continued methods development and their application to more robust and meaningful CCS performance and cost studies.