Transportation risk analysis framework for Arctic waters

Arctic waters have historically been relatively inaccessible for marine transport. Lately, climate change has made more of this region ice-free in the summer season. This has reduced the difficulty of marine transport in Arctic waters. Further, exploration and development of natural resources is increasing in Arctic regions, as is destinational shipping. The unique risk factors of this region, such as extremely low temperature, ice conditions and drifting icebergs, continue to pose threats to transportation. Potential impacts associated with marine transportation accidents warrant contingency plans that recognize that preventative measures may fail. To plan effectively, a transportation accident risk assessment model for Arctic waters is helpful. There is limited work on the development of such models. A new cause-consequences based risk assessment model is proposed here. The model estimates the probability of a transportation accident and also the related consequences during navigation in Arctic waters. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker collision on the Northern Sea Route.