Travel time estimation in the GERDIEN project

Bart Van Arem; Martie J.M. Van Der Vlist; M. (Rik) Muste; Stef A. Smulders

doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00702-9

Travel time estimation in the GERDIEN project

Bart Van Arem^*, Martie J.M. Van Der Vlist, M. (Rik) Muste, Stef A. Smulders

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

33 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In order to produce traffic predictions up to 1 h ahead for a motorway network, it is essential to produce reliable estimates for the travel time over motorway sections. This article describes a model for estimating travel times on motorway sections 3-5 km in length. The model uses measurements from inductive loop detectors and is based on a linear input-output ARMA model representation. The model is evaluated using results from a field study. The evaluation data set covers traffic situations with both 'normal' congestion and congestion due to accidents or incidents. The observed and estimated travel times are very close in cases of normal congestion. Travel time estimates in cases concerning accidents showed large deviations, but in these cases there were no travel time observations to verify their accuracy.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	73-85
Number of pages	13
Journal	International Journal of Forecasting
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00702-9
Publication status	Published - 1997
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

ARMA model
Evaluation
Short-term traffic prediction
Travel times

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10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00702-9

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title = "Travel time estimation in the GERDIEN project",

abstract = "In order to produce traffic predictions up to 1 h ahead for a motorway network, it is essential to produce reliable estimates for the travel time over motorway sections. This article describes a model for estimating travel times on motorway sections 3-5 km in length. The model uses measurements from inductive loop detectors and is based on a linear input-output ARMA model representation. The model is evaluated using results from a field study. The evaluation data set covers traffic situations with both 'normal' congestion and congestion due to accidents or incidents. The observed and estimated travel times are very close in cases of normal congestion. Travel time estimates in cases concerning accidents showed large deviations, but in these cases there were no travel time observations to verify their accuracy.",

keywords = "ARMA model, Evaluation, Short-term traffic prediction, Travel times",

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AU - Van Arem, Bart

AU - Van Der Vlist, Martie J.M.

AU - Muste, M. (Rik)

AU - Smulders, Stef A.

PY - 1997

Y1 - 1997

N2 - In order to produce traffic predictions up to 1 h ahead for a motorway network, it is essential to produce reliable estimates for the travel time over motorway sections. This article describes a model for estimating travel times on motorway sections 3-5 km in length. The model uses measurements from inductive loop detectors and is based on a linear input-output ARMA model representation. The model is evaluated using results from a field study. The evaluation data set covers traffic situations with both 'normal' congestion and congestion due to accidents or incidents. The observed and estimated travel times are very close in cases of normal congestion. Travel time estimates in cases concerning accidents showed large deviations, but in these cases there were no travel time observations to verify their accuracy.

AB - In order to produce traffic predictions up to 1 h ahead for a motorway network, it is essential to produce reliable estimates for the travel time over motorway sections. This article describes a model for estimating travel times on motorway sections 3-5 km in length. The model uses measurements from inductive loop detectors and is based on a linear input-output ARMA model representation. The model is evaluated using results from a field study. The evaluation data set covers traffic situations with both 'normal' congestion and congestion due to accidents or incidents. The observed and estimated travel times are very close in cases of normal congestion. Travel time estimates in cases concerning accidents showed large deviations, but in these cases there were no travel time observations to verify their accuracy.

KW - ARMA model

KW - Evaluation

KW - Short-term traffic prediction

KW - Travel times

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JO - International Journal of Forecasting

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Travel time estimation in the GERDIEN project

Abstract

Keywords

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