In order to produce traffic predictions up to 1 h ahead for a motorway network, it is essential to produce reliable estimates for the travel time over motorway sections. This article describes a model for estimating travel times on motorway sections 3-5 km in length. The model uses measurements from inductive loop detectors and is based on a linear input-output ARMA model representation. The model is evaluated using results from a field study. The evaluation data set covers traffic situations with both 'normal' congestion and congestion due to accidents or incidents. The observed and estimated travel times are very close in cases of normal congestion. Travel time estimates in cases concerning accidents showed large deviations, but in these cases there were no travel time observations to verify their accuracy.
- ARMA model
- Short-term traffic prediction
- Travel times