Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections

R. S.W. van de Wal*, X. Zhang, S. Minobe, S. Jevrejeva, R. E.M. Riva, C. Little, K. Richter, M. D. Palmer

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)
60 Downloads (Pure)


Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1655-1671
Number of pages17
JournalSurveys in Geophysics
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 2019


  • Coastal sea level
  • Uncertainties


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