Understanding slow progress on urban climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of behavioural dynamics in Dutch policymaking

Urban areas face an increasing urgency to adapt to climate change, yet adaptation efforts remain insufficient. Addressing this adaptation gap requires an understanding of the psychological mechanisms and contextual influences shaping climate adaptation behaviour. Whereas behavioural scientists have explored citizens’ climate adaptation behaviours, the decision-making of policymakers is often overlooked despite its importance in closing the adaptation gap. To address this, we conducted a behavioural systems analysis to uncover behavioural dynamics that shape policymakers' decision-making, based on 32 semi-struct ured interviews and a workshop with Dutch urban climate adaptation policymakers. Combing thematic and content analysis with behavioural system mapping, our results highlight the importance of an integrated, dynamic system approach to understand psychological and contextual influences on policymakers' decision-making. We identified nine central themes reflecting key behavioural dynamics: reliance on precedents; fragmented roles and responsibilities; habitual thinking based on longstanding processes; policy stringency, clarity and process; conflicting political priorities; importance of individuals; externally-motivated action; illusion of local actor engagement; moving from awareness creation to mainstreaming. Furthermore, analysis of behavioural influences using the Theoretical Domains Framework identified policymakers’ beliefs about consequences, environmental context and resources, and goals as most influential determinants of behaviour. Behavioural system mapping revealed three impactful levers for interventions, namely supporting precedent identification, stimulating information gathering, and boosting mainstreaming processes, to improve decision-making in urban climate adaptation. By integrating behavioural insights and systems analysis, this work proposes a novel approach to analyse contextual, dynamic influences and determinants of behaviour that shape adaptation policymaking. Therefore, it aligns with recent calls from behavioural scientists highlighting the need for systemic approaches in behavioural science.