Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation

S. Alonso Vicario*, M. Mazzoleni, S. Bhamidipati, M. Gharesifard, E. Ridolfi, C. Pandolfo, L. Alfonso

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people’s behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2359-2375
Number of pages17
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume65
Issue number14
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • agent-based modelling
  • flood evacuation
  • flood modelling
  • human evacuation behaviour
  • socio-hydrology
  • unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH)
  • UPH #21

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