Validity and validation of safety-related quantitative risk analysis: A review

Floris Goerlandt, Nima Khakzad Rostami, Genserik Reniers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

75 Citations (Scopus)
40 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is widely applied in several industries as a tool to improve safety, as part of design, licensing or operational processes. Nevertheless, there is much less academic research on the validity and validation of QRA, despite their importance both for the science of risk analysis and with respect to its practical implication for decision-making and improving system safety. In light of this, this paper presents a review focusing on the validity and validation of QRA in a safety context. Theoretical, methodological and empirical contributions in the scientific literature are reviewed, focusing on three questions. Which theoretical views on validity and validation of QRA can be found? Which features of QRA are useful to validate a particular QRA, and which frameworks are proposed to this effect? What kinds of claims are made about QRA, and what evidence is available for QRA being valid for the stated purposes? A discussion follows the review, focusing on the available evidence for the validity of QRA and the effectiveness of validation methods.
Original languageEnglish
JournalSafety Science
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

Keywords

  • Risk analysis
  • Validation
  • Foundational issues
  • Quantitative risk analysis
  • QRA

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