TY - JOUR
T1 - Value of information of combinations of proof loading and pore pressure monitoring for flood defences
AU - van der Krogt, Mark G.
AU - Klerk, Wouter J.
AU - Kanning, Wim
AU - Schweckendiek, Timo
AU - Kok, Matthijs
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Spatial variability and limited measurements often result in low reliability estimates of geotechnical failure modes of dikes (i.e., earthen flood defences). Required dike reinforcements are usually not executed within a few years after inception, which enables efforts to improve reliability estimates by reducing uncertainty. Often decision makers are unclear on whether uncertainty reduction is worth investing, and which (combination of) methods yields the highest Value of Information (VoI). This paper presents a framework to assess the VoI of two uncertainty reduction methods (proof loading and pore pressure monitoring) for a case study of a typical river dike with an insufficiently stable inner slope, using a decision tree. In all cases, a positive VoI was found for at least one strategy consisting of a proof load test, monitoring or both. The optimal strategy of proof loading and monitoring has a VoI of 4.0 M€, being a reduction in total cost of 25% compared to a conventional dike reinforcement. It was also found that sometimes proof loading enhances the VoI of pore pressure monitoring, which demonstrates the benefits of jointly considering different methods in a single decision tree. The decision framework yields insight in total cost and VoI of risk reduction strategies, which enables decision makers to determine where proof loading and/or pore pressure monitoring are efficient, leading to more efficient flood defence asset management.
AB - Spatial variability and limited measurements often result in low reliability estimates of geotechnical failure modes of dikes (i.e., earthen flood defences). Required dike reinforcements are usually not executed within a few years after inception, which enables efforts to improve reliability estimates by reducing uncertainty. Often decision makers are unclear on whether uncertainty reduction is worth investing, and which (combination of) methods yields the highest Value of Information (VoI). This paper presents a framework to assess the VoI of two uncertainty reduction methods (proof loading and pore pressure monitoring) for a case study of a typical river dike with an insufficiently stable inner slope, using a decision tree. In all cases, a positive VoI was found for at least one strategy consisting of a proof load test, monitoring or both. The optimal strategy of proof loading and monitoring has a VoI of 4.0 M€, being a reduction in total cost of 25% compared to a conventional dike reinforcement. It was also found that sometimes proof loading enhances the VoI of pore pressure monitoring, which demonstrates the benefits of jointly considering different methods in a single decision tree. The decision framework yields insight in total cost and VoI of risk reduction strategies, which enables decision makers to determine where proof loading and/or pore pressure monitoring are efficient, leading to more efficient flood defence asset management.
KW - Decision trees
KW - pore pressure monitoring
KW - proof loading
KW - reliability
KW - slope stability
KW - Value of information
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097848215&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/15732479.2020.1857794
DO - 10.1080/15732479.2020.1857794
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85097848215
SN - 1573-2479
VL - 18
SP - 505
EP - 520
JO - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
JF - Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
IS - 4
ER -