Will self-driving cars impact the long-term investment strategy for the Dutch national trunk road system?

Remko Smit, Henk van Mourik, Erik Verroen, Marits Pieters, Dick Bakker, Maaike Snelder

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeChapterScientificpeer-review

Abstract

This paper analyzes one of the uncertainties defined for the Dutch long term strategic policy study “National market and capacity analysis.” The question asked was whether the upcoming of self-driving cars would impact the investment needs in the trunk road system for the years 2040 and beyond. The paper describes how the National Model System was adapted to do this analysis, how the scenarios were defined, and which results were obtained. The main lesson from this study is that a “naïve” exploration of this question, only assessing the first order effects on congestion, results in a large over-estimation of the reduction (or increase) in congestion. It is crucial to model mode, time of day and destination effects as well, since that will significantly reduce the first order effects on congestion.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAutonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility
EditorsPierluigi Coppola, Domokos Esztergár-Kiss
PublisherElsevier
Pages57 - 67
Number of pages11
ISBN (Electronic)9780128176962
ISBN (Print)978-0-12-817696-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Keywords

  • Automated vehicle
  • Congestion strategic study
  • Investment strategy
  • Long term analysis
  • Platooning assignment models
  • Self-driving cars

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