Modeling the fate of viruses in aquifers: multi-kinetics reactive transport, risk assessment, and governing parameters

The transport of viruses in groundwater is a complex process controlled by both hydrodynamic and reaction parameters. Characterizing the transport of viruses in groundwater is of crucial importance for investigating health risks associated with groundwater consumption from private individual or residential pumping wells. Setback distances between septic systems, which are the source of viruses, and pumping wells must be designed to offer sufficient groundwater travel times to allow the viral load to degrade sufficiently to be acceptable for community health needs. This study consists of developing numerical simulations for the reactive transport of viruses in the subsurface. These simulations are validated using published results of laboratory and field experiments on virus transport in the subsurface and applying previously developed analytical solutions. The numerical model is then exploited to investigate the sensitivity of the fate of viruses in saturated porous media to hydraulic parameters and the coefficients of kinetic reactions. This sensitivity analysis provides valuable insights into the prevailing factors governing health risks caused by contaminated water in private wells in rural residential contexts. The simulations of virus transport are converted into health risk predictions through dose–response relationships. Risk predictions for a wide range of input parameters are compared with the international regulatory health risk target of a maximum of 10−4 infections/person/year and a 30 m setback distance to identify critical subsurface contexts that should be the focus of regulators.