溃坝风险后果研究现状与发展趋势

Risk consequences analysis of dam breach is fundamental to risk assessment of reservoir dams. Multiple influencing factors and complex mechanisms lead to great differences between the analysis results of different research methods and the actual consequences. It is suggested that risk consequences can be divided into three basic categories: loss of life, economic loss and environmental impact, based on their definitions. According to the analysis of research achievements and applications abroad, the development trend that physical model based on disaster-causing mechanism takes place of empirical model based on historical data is clarified. Based on the analysis of research status of dam breach risk consequences assessment in China, both advantages and disadvantages of three main research methods, i.e. analysis based on empirical model and disaster-causing mechanism, semi-quantitative evaluation and superposition calculation of regional losses, are clarified in terms of accuracy and practicability. It is proposed that the risk consequences research and practical application can be improved in four aspects, i.e., strengthening the analysis of disaster-causing mechanism, paying attention to the combination of accuracy and practicability, emphasizing the important roles of non-engineering measures and improving the research constantly during application.