On the Uncertainty of Space Debris Trajectory Predictions

The goal of the research is to improve space situational awareness (SSA) for space debris objects, and to make space operations more sustainable and remain possible in the future. Vital to this awareness is understanding which objects are present, through space surveillance and tracking (SST), and where these objects will be in the future, through orbit prediction and analysis. Therefore, the research specifically focusses on supporting conjunction analysis, which aims to predict which satellites have a high risk of collisions, and improving re-entry predictions, which indicate possible ranges of impact locations and epochs for satellites returning back to Earth.