A dynamic condition assessment model of aging subsea pipelines subject to corrosion-fatigue degradation

Ziyue Han, Xinhong Li*, Renren Zhang, Ming Yang, Mohamed El Amine Ben Seghier

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
16 Downloads (Pure)


Extension of operating lifetime of aging subsea pipelines is of great interest to oil and gas sectors. Corrosion and fatigue are the main causations of the condition degradation of subsea pipelines. A dynamic probabilistic condition assessment model based on continuous dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is developed to support the life extension decision-making of aging subsea pipeline subjected to the corrosion-fatigue degradation. The methodology is built based on equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) concept and a time-dependent prediction model implemented using DBN. The complex corrosion-fatigue degradation process is simplified by EIFS concept, and the crack propagation due to corrosion-fatigue is modelled using fracture mechanics model and DBN. A limit state function (LSF) is used to express the failure condition of subsea pipeline due to crack propagation. The dynamic reliability of subsea pipeline is estimated using Monte Carlo (MC) method with the probability distributions of the predicted crack sizes at different time slices. The estimated reliability is compared with the acceptable threshold to decide whether any measures are required to extend the life of subsea pipeline. The methodology is tested by a case study, and it is observed that it can be a useful tool to support life extension decision-making of aging subsea pipelines.
Original languageEnglish
Article number103717
JournalApplied Ocean Research
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.


  • Ageing subsea pipelines
  • Condition assessment
  • Corrosion-fatigue
  • EIFS
  • Life extension


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