An Expert System for Cost Estimation of Shipyard Steel Assembly

Marije Deul, Bernades J. Hoek, Sietske Moussault, Anna-Louise Nijdam, Gerrit Alblas, Robert Hekkenberg

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

Abstract

The current cost estimate applied by shipyards in the pre-contract phase is insufficiently valid and accurate for “one-off” ships. Most shipyards use the unit man-hours/metric ton for the estimation of man-hours in steel assembly. This key figure does not take blocks’ properties and the required actions for assembly into account. It is evident that e.g. welding above head by hand or Submerged Arc Welding (SAW) and the amount of lift and turn movements influence the lead-time and number of man-hours. The estimation of man-hours in steel-assembly can be improved by the identification of production patterns and the resulting actions. Therefore, the rationale, the reasoning and decision-making processes of the production engineers needs to be captured. This paper focuses on rationale capturing, codifying and storing for (re)use. First, it is discussed how the rationale is captured through experts-interviews, based on the reactive knowledge capturing method. Thereafter, it is explained how the captured rationale is stored in an Expert System, linking construction plans to a fitting assembly-order. This resulting assembly-order can be used to derive the amount and type of actions required. This enables a better substantiated cost estimate. The developed system in this research is generally applicable and proves the concept. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research, which includes further automation of this Expert System and integration of man-hour calculations.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 18th Conference on Computer Applications and Information Technology in the Maritime Industries (COMPIT 2019)
Pages213-223
Publication statusPublished - 2019
EventCOMPIT 2019: 18th Conference on Computer Applications and Information Technology in the Maritime Industries - Tullamore, Ireland
Duration: 25 Mar 201927 Mar 2019

Conference

ConferenceCOMPIT 2019: 18th Conference on Computer Applications and Information Technology in the Maritime Industries
CountryIreland
CityTullamore
Period25/03/1927/03/19

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