Does the decision rule matter for large-scale transport models?

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Abstract

This paper is the first to study to what extent decision rules, embedded in disaggregate discrete choice models, matter for large-scale aggregate level mobility forecasts. Such large-scale forecasts are a crucial underpinning for many transport infrastructure investment decisions. We show, in the particular context of (linear-additive) utility maximization (RUM) and regret minimization (RRM) rules, that the decision rule matters for aggregate level mobility forecasts. We find non-trivial differences between the RUM-based and RRM-based transport model in terms of aggregate forecasts of passenger kilometers, demand elasticities, and monetary benefits of transport policies. This opens up new opportunities for policy analysts to enrich their sensitivity analysis toolbox.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)338-353
Number of pages16
JournalTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Volume114
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2018

Keywords

  • Decision rules
  • Discrete choice modelling
  • Large-scale transport models
  • Random Regret Minimization

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