TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation of the 3DVAR Operational Implementation of the Colombian Air Force for Aircraft Operations
T2 - A Case Study
AU - Hinestroza Ramirez, Jhon Edinson
AU - Soto Barbosa, Juan Ernesto
AU - Yarce Botero, Andrés
AU - Suárez Higuita, Danilo Andrés
AU - Lopez-Restrepo, Santiago
AU - Cruz Ruiz, Lisseth Milena
AU - Sólorzano Araque, Valeria
AU - Céspedes, Andres
AU - Lorduy Hernandez, Sara
AU - More Authors, null
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - This manuscript introduces an exploratory case study of the SIMFAC’s (Sistema de Información Meteorológica de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana) operational implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme that provides meteorological information for military, public, and private aviation. In particular, it investigates whether the assimilation scheme in SIMFAC’s implementation improves the prediction of the variables of interest compared to the implementation without data assimilation (CTRL). Consequently, this study compares SIMFAC’S 3DVAR-WRF operational implementation in Colombia with a CTRL with the same parameterization (without 3DVAR assimilation) against the ground and satellite observations in two operational forecast windows. The simulations are as long as an operational run, and the evaluation is performed using the root mean square error, the mean fractional bias, the percent bias, the correlation factor, and metrics based on contingency tables. It also evaluates the model’s results according to the regions of Colombia, accounting for the country’s topographical differences. The findings reveal that, in general, the operational forecast (3DVAR) is similar to the CTRL without data assimilation, indicating the need for further improvement of the 3DVAR-WRF implementation.
AB - This manuscript introduces an exploratory case study of the SIMFAC’s (Sistema de Información Meteorológica de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana) operational implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme that provides meteorological information for military, public, and private aviation. In particular, it investigates whether the assimilation scheme in SIMFAC’s implementation improves the prediction of the variables of interest compared to the implementation without data assimilation (CTRL). Consequently, this study compares SIMFAC’S 3DVAR-WRF operational implementation in Colombia with a CTRL with the same parameterization (without 3DVAR assimilation) against the ground and satellite observations in two operational forecast windows. The simulations are as long as an operational run, and the evaluation is performed using the root mean square error, the mean fractional bias, the percent bias, the correlation factor, and metrics based on contingency tables. It also evaluates the model’s results according to the regions of Colombia, accounting for the country’s topographical differences. The findings reveal that, in general, the operational forecast (3DVAR) is similar to the CTRL without data assimilation, indicating the need for further improvement of the 3DVAR-WRF implementation.
KW - operational forecast
KW - data assimilation
KW - WRF model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85166397970&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/cli11070153
DO - 10.3390/cli11070153
M3 - Article
SN - 2225-1154
VL - 11
JO - Climate
JF - Climate
IS - 7
M1 - 153
ER -