Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy

Sarah Sheehy, Gruffudd Edwards, Chris J. Dent, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias Troffaes, Simon Tindemans

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents results on variability of out-turn shortfalls about the expected value indices which are usually presented in resource adequacy studies, for a range of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) levels and installed wind capacities in a test system generally representative of future Great Britain system scenarios. While the details of results will clearly vary between systems, one very general conclusion is possible. In the results presented, for a given LOLE level, the probability of very severe out-turn in a future peak season is much greater at high installed wind capacity. Thus for this system, as the installed wind capacity increases, a constant level of LOLE cannot be taken as an indicator of an unchanging overall risk profile of the system. This further demonstrates that in any system, LOLE cannot be assumed to be a good summary statistic of risk profile as the installed variable generation (VG) capacity increases, and that it might be necessary to reconsider the near-universal use of expected value risk indices as the main headline indices in utility adequacy studies.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2016 - Proceedings
Place of PublicationPiscataway, NJ
PublisherIEEE
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5090-1970-0
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2016
Externally publishedYes
EventPMAPS 2016: International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems - Beijing, China
Duration: 16 Oct 201620 Oct 2016

Conference

ConferencePMAPS 2016
CountryChina
CityBeijing
Period16/10/1620/10/16

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