TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of hydraulic model resolution and loss of life model modification on flood fatality risk estimation
T2 - Case study of the Bommelerwaard, The Netherlands
AU - Brussee, Anneroos R.
AU - Bricker, Jeremy D.
AU - De Bruijn, Karin M.
AU - Verhoeven, Govert F.
AU - Winsemius, Hessel C.
AU - Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Flood simulations are important for flood (fatality) risk assessment. This article provides insight into the sensitivity of flood fatality risks to the model resolution of flood simulations and to several uncertain parameters in the loss of life model used. A case study is conducted for river flooding in a polder in the Netherlands (the Bommelerwaard) where the Dutch approach for loss of life estimation is applied. Flood models with resolutions of 100, 25, and 5 m are considered. Results show locally increased mortality rates in higher resolution simulations nearby structures including road embankments, dikes, and culverts. This causes a larger maximum individual risk value (annual probability of death for a person due to flooding) which has consequences for safety standards based on the individual risk criterion. Mortality rate in the breach zone is also affected by representations of buildings as solid objects versus as roughness elements. Furthermore, changes in the loss of life estimation approach via alternative ways of including people's behaviour, building characteristics, and age of the population, have a significant impact on flood fatality risk. Results from this study can be used to support future risk assessments and decision making with respect to safety standards.
AB - Flood simulations are important for flood (fatality) risk assessment. This article provides insight into the sensitivity of flood fatality risks to the model resolution of flood simulations and to several uncertain parameters in the loss of life model used. A case study is conducted for river flooding in a polder in the Netherlands (the Bommelerwaard) where the Dutch approach for loss of life estimation is applied. Flood models with resolutions of 100, 25, and 5 m are considered. Results show locally increased mortality rates in higher resolution simulations nearby structures including road embankments, dikes, and culverts. This causes a larger maximum individual risk value (annual probability of death for a person due to flooding) which has consequences for safety standards based on the individual risk criterion. Mortality rate in the breach zone is also affected by representations of buildings as solid objects versus as roughness elements. Furthermore, changes in the loss of life estimation approach via alternative ways of including people's behaviour, building characteristics, and age of the population, have a significant impact on flood fatality risk. Results from this study can be used to support future risk assessments and decision making with respect to safety standards.
KW - D-Flow Flexible Mesh
KW - flood risk assessment
KW - hydrodynamic modelling
KW - individual risk
KW - loss of life
KW - model resolution
KW - mortality function
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103158279&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/jfr3.12713
DO - 10.1111/jfr3.12713
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85103158279
SN - 1753-318X
VL - 14
SP - 1
EP - 15
JO - Journal of Flood Risk Management
JF - Journal of Flood Risk Management
IS - 3
M1 - e12713
ER -