Abstract
The efficacy of risk models and risk analyses critically hinges on sufficient model evaluation. Nevertheless, the usefulness for the intended purpose is rarely systematically assessed. Poor or even lacking model evaluation of the applied risk models and analyses also troubles the asset management of storm surge barriers in the Netherlands. In practice, obvious flaws, missing failure modes and use that deviates from the original purpose regularly lead to unpleasant surprises, unnecessary costs and avoidable risks.
Here, we introduce new guidelines for the quality control during the development, testing, maintenance and usage of risk analyses of critical hydraulic structures.
First responses among stakeholders are rather positive since the guidelines help modelers and analysts to better understand critics and independent reviewers to structure their comments. However, the efficacy of the guidelines itself also need rigorous evaluation in the coming years. This may prove challenging as the application of the guidelines may also reveal that the organizations that operation the storm surge barriers are currently insufficiently equipped for the rigorous quality control of risk models and risk analyses.
Here, we introduce new guidelines for the quality control during the development, testing, maintenance and usage of risk analyses of critical hydraulic structures.
First responses among stakeholders are rather positive since the guidelines help modelers and analysts to better understand critics and independent reviewers to structure their comments. However, the efficacy of the guidelines itself also need rigorous evaluation in the coming years. This may prove challenging as the application of the guidelines may also reveal that the organizations that operation the storm surge barriers are currently insufficiently equipped for the rigorous quality control of risk models and risk analyses.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023) |
| Editors | Mario P. Brito, Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi, Marko Cepin, Enrico Zio |
| Publisher | Research Publishing |
| Pages | 2-2 |
| Number of pages | 1 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 978-981-18-8071-1 |
| Publication status | Published - 2023 |
| Event | The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023): The Future od Safety in a Reconnected World - University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom Duration: 3 Sept 2023 → 7 Sept 2023 https://www.esrel2023.com/ |
Conference
| Conference | The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023) |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | ESREL 2023 |
| Country/Territory | United Kingdom |
| City | Southampton |
| Period | 3/09/23 → 7/09/23 |
| Internet address |
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-careOtherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Keywords
- risk analysis
- model quality assessment
- model validation
- model evaluation
- storm surge barriers
- hydraulic structures