Probabilistic surrogate modeling of offshore wind-turbine loads with chained Gaussian processes

D. Singh*, R.P. Dwight, Kasper Laugesen, Laurent Beaudet, A.C. Viré

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleScientificpeer-review

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Abstract

Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, based on the concept of chained Gaussian processes, is used to build surrogates to predict site-specific loads on an offshore wind turbine. Stochasticity in the inflow turbulence and irregular waves results in load responses that are best represented as random variables rather than deterministic values. Moreover, the effect of these stochastic sources on the loads depends strongly on the mean environmental conditions - for instance, at low mean wind speeds, inflow turbulence produces much less variability in loads than at high wind speeds. Statistically, this is known as heteroscedasticity. Deterministic and most stochastic surrogates do not account for the heteroscedastic noise, giving an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the structural response. In this paper, we draw on the recent advancements in statistical inference to train a heteroscedastic surrogate model on a noisy database to predict the conditional pdf of the response. The model is informed via 10-minute load statistics of the IEA-10MW-RWT subject to both aero- and hydrodynamic loads, simulated with OpenFAST. Its performance is assessed against the standard Gaussian process regression. The predicted mean is similar in both models, but the heteroscedastic surrogate approximates the large-scale variance of the responses significantly better.
Original languageEnglish
Article number032070
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Physics: Conference Series
Volume2265
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
EventTORQUE 2022 - Delft, Netherlands
Duration: 1 Jun 20223 Jun 2022
Conference number: 9

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