Abstract
We investigate the changes in surface water salinity intrusion lengths for estuaries around the world under influence of climate change. To do this, we make use of information from global data sets on present river geometry and present and predicted future river discharges, mean sea levels and tidal ranges, which we combine with various models for salt intrusion lengths. The used predictions are based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario and we use 2050 as time horizon, with the 10-percentile lowest discharge as representative value used as input in the intrusion length calculations. The salt intrusion models are two parametric descriptions and a semi-analytical model. With this, we calculate absolute and relative changes in salt intrusion length for a selection of estuaries around the world, to eventually scale up the analysis and develop a global map of changes in salt intrusion around the world under influence of climate change. The results so far indicate that many estuaries may be expected to experience a relative increase of salt intrusion length of over 10%. We also investigate which of the changing forcings most strongly affects the intrusion lengths and what type of estuary is most sensitive to changes. For most systems, the changes in river discharge characteristics are the most influential change, exceeding the influence of sea level rise. This study highlights the importance of studying the effect of climate change on estuarine salt intrusion in more detail, both in global analyses as in system specific detailed studies.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 40th IAHR World Congress |
Subtitle of host publication | Rivers – Connecting Mountains and Coasts |
Editors | Helmut Habersack, Michael Tritthart, Lisa Waldenberger |
Place of Publication | Madrid |
Publisher | International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research |
Pages | 1058-1065 |
Number of pages | 8 |
ISBN (Print) | 978-90-833476-1-5 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2023 |
Event | 40th IAHR World Congress, 2023 - Vienna, Austria Duration: 21 Aug 2023 → 25 Aug 2023 |
Publication series
Name | Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress |
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ISSN (Print) | 2521-7119 |
ISSN (Electronic) | 2521-716X |
Conference
Conference | 40th IAHR World Congress, 2023 |
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Country/Territory | Austria |
City | Vienna |
Period | 21/08/23 → 25/08/23 |
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-careOtherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Keywords
- Salinity intrusion
- Estuaries
- Climate change
- Projections
- Droughts