Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure

Mahesh D. Pandey*, J.A.M. van der Weide

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)
66 Downloads (Pure)


In the life-cycle cost analysis of a structure, the total cost of damage caused by external hazards like earthquakes, wind storms and flood is an important but highly uncertain component. In the literature, the expected damage cost is typically analyzed under the assumption of either the homogeneous Poisson process or the renewal process in an infinite time horizon (i.e., asymptotic solution). The paper reformulates the damage cost estimation problem as a compound renewal process and derives general solutions for the mean and variance of total cost, with and without discounting, over the life cycle of the structure. The paper highlights a fundamental property of the renewal process, referred to as renewal decomposition, which is a key to solving a wide range of life cycle analysis problems. The proposed formulation generalizes the results given in the literature, and it can be used to optimize the design and life cycle performance of structures.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-38
Number of pages12
JournalStructural Safety
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2017


  • Discounted cost
  • Expected cost
  • Life cycle analysis
  • Renewal function rate
  • Renewal process
  • Seismic risk
  • Stochastic process
  • Structural safety


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