Technology evaluation and uncertainty-based design optimization: A review

Martijn Roelofs, Roelof Vos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)
137 Downloads (Pure)


Evaluation and assessment of novel technologies for aerospace applications is essential for business strategy and decision making regarding development efforts. Since technology is evaluated in the conceptual design phase and little is known about the technology, large uncertainty is present. This uncertainty needs to be accurately assessed and managed. To investigate the research efforts that have been performed to perform technology evaluation under uncertainty, a literature review was conducted, focusing on methods and modeling approaches to assign and quantify these uncertainties. It is found that probability theory is still the most popular theory for representing uncertainty. Polynomial Chaos Expansions and Stochastic Collocation methods are gaining popularity for propagating uncertainty through a modeling environment, but Monte Carlo Simulations are still widely used. Commonly, surrogate models are used to reduce computational effort. Other efforts focus on the use of multifidelity approaches to reduce computational effort when high-fidelity methods are required. Four issues that may need to be addressed in future research were identified.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting
PublisherAmerican Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc. (AIAA)
Number of pages21
ISBN (Electronic)9781624105241
Publication statusPublished - 2018
EventAIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, 2018 - Kissimmee, United States
Duration: 8 Jan 201812 Jan 2018


ConferenceAIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States


Dive into the research topics of 'Technology evaluation and uncertainty-based design optimization: A review'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this