Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

Long Ma; Maksim Kitsak; Piet Van Mieghem

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

Long Ma^*, Maksim Kitsak, Piet Van Mieghem

^*Corresponding author for this work

Network Architectures and Services

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021
Editors	Rosa Maria Benito, Chantal Cherifi, Hocine Cherifi, Esteban Moro, Luis M. Rocha, Marta Sales-Pardo
Publisher	Springer
Pages	265-276
Number of pages	12
ISBN (Print)	9783030934125
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23
Publication status	Published - 2022
Event	10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021 - Hybrid at Madrid, Spain Duration: 30 Nov 2021 → 2 Dec 2021 Conference number: 10th

Publication series

Name	Studies in Computational Intelligence
Volume	1016
ISSN (Print)	1860-949X
ISSN (Electronic)	1860-9503

Conference

Conference	10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021
Country/Territory	Spain
City	Hybrid at Madrid
Period	30/11/21 → 2/12/21

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

Complex networks
COVID-19 pandemic
Mortality reduction
Two-population SIR model

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10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

Ma2022_Chapter_Two_PopulationSIRModelAndStratFinal published version, 1.51 MB

Cite this

Ma, L., Kitsak, M., & Van Mieghem, P. (2022). Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics. In R. M. Benito, C. Cherifi, H. Cherifi, E. Moro, L. M. Rocha, & M. Sales-Pardo (Eds.), Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021 (pp. 265-276). (Studies in Computational Intelligence; Vol. 1016). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

Ma, Long ; Kitsak, Maksim ; Van Mieghem, Piet. / Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics. Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021. editor / Rosa Maria Benito ; Chantal Cherifi ; Hocine Cherifi ; Esteban Moro ; Luis M. Rocha ; Marta Sales-Pardo. Springer, 2022. pp. 265-276 (Studies in Computational Intelligence).

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title = "Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics",

abstract = "Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.",

keywords = "Complex networks, COVID-19 pandemic, Mortality reduction, Two-population SIR model",

author = "Long Ma and Maksim Kitsak and {Van Mieghem}, Piet",

note = "Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository {\textquoteleft}You share, we take care!{\textquoteright} – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. ; 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021 ; Conference date: 30-11-2021 Through 02-12-2021",

year = "2022",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783030934125",

series = "Studies in Computational Intelligence",

publisher = "Springer",

pages = "265--276",

editor = "Benito, {Rosa Maria} and Chantal Cherifi and Hocine Cherifi and Esteban Moro and Rocha, {Luis M.} and Marta Sales-Pardo",

booktitle = "Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021",

}

Ma, L, Kitsak, M & Van Mieghem, P 2022, Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics. in RM Benito, C Cherifi, H Cherifi, E Moro, LM Rocha & M Sales-Pardo (eds), Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol. 1016, Springer, pp. 265-276, 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021, Hybrid at Madrid, Spain, 30/11/21. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics. / Ma, Long; Kitsak, Maksim ; Van Mieghem, Piet.
Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021. ed. / Rosa Maria Benito; Chantal Cherifi; Hocine Cherifi; Esteban Moro; Luis M. Rocha; Marta Sales-Pardo. Springer, 2022. p. 265-276 (Studies in Computational Intelligence; Vol. 1016).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volume › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

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T1 - Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

AU - Ma, Long

AU - Kitsak, Maksim

AU - Van Mieghem, Piet

N1 - Conference code: 10th

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.

AB - Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.

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BT - Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021

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A2 - Cherifi, Hocine

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ER -

Ma L, Kitsak M , Van Mieghem P. Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics. In Benito RM, Cherifi C, Cherifi H, Moro E, Rocha LM, Sales-Pardo M, editors, Complex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021. Springer. 2022. p. 265-276. (Studies in Computational Intelligence). doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-93413-2_23

Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

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