Two-Population SIR Model and Strategies to Reduce Mortality in Pandemics

Long Ma*, Maksim Kitsak, Piet Van Mieghem

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceedings/Edited volumeConference contributionScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComplex Networks and Their Applications X - Volume 2, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021
EditorsRosa Maria Benito, Chantal Cherifi, Hocine Cherifi, Esteban Moro, Luis M. Rocha, Marta Sales-Pardo
PublisherSpringer
Pages265-276
Number of pages12
ISBN (Print)9783030934125
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021 - Hybrid at Madrid, Spain
Duration: 30 Nov 20212 Dec 2021
Conference number: 10th

Publication series

NameStudies in Computational Intelligence
Volume1016
ISSN (Print)1860-949X
ISSN (Electronic)1860-9503

Conference

Conference10th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications, COMPLEX NETWORKS 2021
Country/TerritorySpain
CityHybrid at Madrid
Period30/11/212/12/21

Bibliographical note

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care
Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Keywords

  • Complex networks
  • COVID-19 pandemic
  • Mortality reduction
  • Two-population SIR model

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