Valuation Construction Permit Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Stochastic Decision Tree Analysis

Serhat Basdogan, Hilde Remøy, Ruud Binnekamp

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Abstract

With the rapid development of real estate markets under globalization and exponential competitive market conditions, risk evaluation has been one of the most important tasks in the process of real estate investment valuation. This paper describes the relationship between construction permit uncertainties and real estate development projects by using the Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) approach together with Monte Carlo simulations. Expected Value (EV) criterion for an office development project proposed and incorporated into conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis which is determined by stochastic DTA. This will help utility function to come closer to the real world, so that decision making and risk analysis can be done based on the real and possible data providing better conditions for investors. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional DCF analysis. However research demonstrates that is of application Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and DTA obviate the deficiencies of conventional DCF analysis under construction permit delays and scheduling uncertainties. Results also emphasize the importance of applying EV and DTA for the construction permit delays generate a significant change in NPV and also investment decisions of real estate development projects.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference (ERES 2018)
Place of PublicationReading, UK
PublisherHenley Business School, University of Reading
Number of pages17
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018
EventERES 2018: 25th Annual Conference of the European Real Estate Society - Henley Business School, Reading, United Kingdom
Duration: 27 Jun 201830 Jun 2018
http://www.reading.ac.uk/eres-conference/eres-home.aspx

Conference

ConferenceERES 2018: 25th Annual Conference of the European Real Estate Society
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityReading
Period27/06/1830/06/18
Internet address

Keywords

  • Real Estate Development
  • Valuation
  • Dicision Tree Analysis
  • Expected Value
  • Monte Carlo Simulation

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    Basdogan, S., Remøy, H., & Binnekamp, R. (2018). Valuation Construction Permit Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Stochastic Decision Tree Analysis. In Proceedings 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference (ERES 2018) Henley Business School, University of Reading. https://doi.org/10.15396/eres2018_265